Brief analysis on the factors of adipic acid deman

2022-08-23
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A brief analysis of the factors influencing the change of adipic acid demand in China in the future

in recent years, China's adipic acid production capacity has been growing, gradually forming a situation of overcapacity, and the market has been in a state of supply exceeding demand for a long time. In addition to the impact of raw material costs, changes in downstream demand have become an important factor affecting the market trend of adipic acid. At present, the main downstream of adipic acid includes traditional industries such as polyurethane slurry and sole stock solution, as well as nylon 66 industry, which has gradually risen in recent years. This paper mainly introduces the operation of the main downstream markets of adipic acid in recent years, and analyzes the influencing factors of future demand changes

as we all know, the traditional downstream of adipic acid in China is mainly the polyurethane slurry and sole stock solution industry, which account for more than half of the downstream demand of adipic acid. In recent years, with the gradual rise of the downstream nylon 66 salt industry, its demand accounts for an increasing proportion of adipic acid downstream. At present, the situation of overcapacity in the cleaning industry of adipic acid test-bed and painting appearance in China is severe, and the market has been in a situation of oversupply for a long time. In addition to the raw material cost factor, the change of downstream demand has become an important factor affecting the market trend of adipic acid

from the perspective of Polyurethane Sizing and sole stock solution industry, in recent years, the European Union has implemented new regulations on leather products, and the technical barriers to trade have been continuously upgraded, which has increased the production cost of 3 yuan NCA materials for China's leather export enterprises. The new hexavalent chromium regulation implemented by the European Union on May 1st, 2015 has a certain impact on the export of China's footwear industry to the European Union. The European Union is one of the largest target markets of China's footwear industry, and also the region with the highest requirements for the content of limited substances, with the most stringent standards. Under the background of global attention to trade remedy measures, relatively hidden technical barriers to trade have become the main constraints faced by China's footwear exports. The strict requirements on the content of limited substances will increase the probability that our leather products will be notified or even returned and recalled abroad, greatly weakening the profitability of the enterprise and the opportunity to obtain export orders. In the long run, the price competitive advantage of China's leather products will weaken and the competitiveness of the international market will decline. This will further affect the development of its upstream polyurethane slurry industry. The sluggish terminal industry will inhibit the enthusiasm of slurry manufacturers to start work, and further reduce their demand for adipic acid procurement

as the butterfly effect of the ruble devaluation crisis has been transmitted to China's footwear exports to Russia, in the first three quarters of 2015, China's footwear exports to Russia were only $1.436 billion, accounting for 3.52%, a decline of 41.33%, from the second largest exporter to the fifth. Affected by this, the domestic shoe enterprises, as the terminals of sole stock solution, have been greatly impacted, with more losses. The enterprises are in a dilemma, and are ready to reduce production and ensure prices in the future. Therefore, it is expected that in 2016, the operating rate of Chinese manufacturers of sizing materials and shoe sole stock solution will fluctuate within a level range, and the overall demand release is expected to be difficult to increase compared with 2015

from the perspective of nylon 66 industry, at present, China's PA66 production enterprises mainly include 140000 T/a PA66 device of Henan Pingdingshan Shenma Industrial Co., Ltd., 20000 t/a PA66 device of Jiangsu Huayang nylon Co., Ltd., 40000 t/a PA66 device of Zhejiang Huafeng Thermoplastic Polyurethane Co., Ltd., and 50000 T/a PA66 device of Liaoyang Xingjia new chemical materials Co., Ltd. The total capacity of PA66 in China reached 250000 tons/year, and the average unit operating rate of production enterprises reached above the level of% in 2015. Considering the basic balance between supply and demand in the domestic PA66 market and the steady development of the industry, the operating rate of later production enterprises is still expected to remain at a high level, and the demand for adipic acid is relatively considerable,

in general, the demand share of adipic acid in various regions in China changed little in 2015, while the demand share of downstream industries was different from that in previous years. In recent years, due to the high pressure of domestic inflation, the labor cost has risen rapidly, and the operating costs of terminal tanning and shoemaking factories have increased. At the same time, enterprises have to face the impact of the sharp increase in export volume on Chinese enterprises under the relatively low labor cost after the rise of shoe leather factories in Southeast Asia. Under the situation of economic recovery, domestic purchasing power has declined, and the inventory of products produced by manufacturers has accumulated, and the situation of being forced to reduce the burden or stop production to reduce losses has increased. Affected by the transmission effect, in 2015, Chinese manufacturers of sizing materials and shoe sole stock solutions continued to maintain a low operating rate, and the plant load of enterprises fluctuated at about 50%, especially when buying meat and aquatic products, the purchase of adipic acid, which is a thermal conductive material for such products, also decreased. The downstream nylon 66 salt industry is in a period of growth, and there is still room for terminal demand to grow. In 2015, the proportion of its total demand for adipic acid was enlarged, and it will become a new demand growth point for adipic acid in the later stage

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