The hottest liquidity turned neutral and tight inf

2022-08-11
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Liquidity turned neutral and tight inflection point, and the copper price fell significantly after the holiday

on the whole, the recent copper price has been greatly affected by the macro level. The confirmation of liquidity inflection point has led to the decline of stock markets, bond markets and commodities, and the surge of market caution. In terms of fundamentals, for the time being, due to the lack of full recovery of spot goods after the holiday, its influence on the market is weak, and the impact of overseas Indonesian mine export restrictions and labor negotiation strikes still need to be further observed. The copper price fell below the 20 day moving average, and cautious operators can leave the market first to wait and see

important changes:

1 The inventory of the previous period was reported as 223853 tons after the holiday, an increase of 10928 tons compared with that before the holiday. The latest inventory of Lun copper was 257150 tons, and the proportion of written off warehouse receipts rose to 40.68%

2. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission 1. The plastic processing industry entered the growth rate shift period and achieved a stable and healthy development commission (CFTC) data released on Friday showed that as of the week of January 31, hedge funds and fund managers increased their net long positions in Comex copper futures and options and reached a record high. As of the week of January 31, friction machinery customers who invested in and increased the spindle bushing increased their net long positions in Comex copper futures and options by 9948 hands to 101139 hands, the highest since 2006. Copper prices rose to a two month high on concerns that Chilean supply could be disrupted and the dollar weak

Outlook:

on the first day after the festival, haojiping, member of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and vice president of Xi'an University of architecture and technology, believed that the bank had comprehensively raised the bid winning interest rate of reverse repurchase - the bid winning interest rate of 7-day reverse repurchase operation was 2.35%, up from 2.25% previously; The bid winning rate of 14 day reverse repurchase operation was 2.5%, up from 2.4% previously; The bid winning rate of 28 day reverse repurchase operation was 2.65%, up from 2.55%. On Friday, the central bank also raised the SLF interest rate by 35 basis points to 3.1% for overnight varieties; The 7-day and 1-month varieties were increased by 10 basis points to 3.35% and 3.7% respectively. The disguised interest rate hike by the central bank shows that China's monetary policy has been moderately tightened, further suppressing the high price real estate market driven by the liquidity feast. After the holiday, black commodities led the decline, and the market was worried about the downward risk of the economy again. From the perspective of macro liquidity, the impact on copper price is short

in terms of spot goods, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot today offered a discount of 100 yuan/ton - ping Shui for the contract of the month. On the first day of the opening trading after the year, most of the supply and demand sides have not returned to the market, but after the year, based on the expectation of the downstream aftermarket replenishment demand and the gradual approach to delivery after February, the holders decided to narrow the discount. Ping Shui copper quoted around a discount of 80 yuan/ton. In order to attract the downstream market, the drying conditions of wet copper were 80 ⑼0 ℃ The 2-hour discount is rapidly expanded from 120 yuan/ton to yuan/ton, and some wet copper can be expanded to 200 yuan/ton due to the warehouse type and quality level difference. Only good copper has few quotations. The goods are tight and the prices are attractive. The quotations are firm at the level of the water line. Even when the market is leaking, the goods holders have the intention of starting a premium, but there are few market responders. A small number of recipients are mostly used for speculation and protection of the price of low-cost goods. The market is mostly waiting for the recovery next Monday. In the afternoon, the low level of Shanghai copper stabilized, and there was no change in the spot good copper. The price was higher than that of Pingshui. The discount of some low-end Pingshui Copper was expanded to 120 yuan/ton, and the wet copper was more than 200 yuan/ton. However, the festive atmosphere was still strong, and it was more difficult to make a deal without inquiry. After the festival, as there is only one trading day for another weekend holiday, most traders and downstream companies have not entered the normal operation. Next week, the market activity will gradually increase, superimposed on the approaching delivery, and traders are optimistic about the high price operation in the peak season. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to climb

in the imported copper market, the recent strike in the overseas market has affected the strong copper price, while the domestic copper price has been under pressure due to tight macro liquidity. Coupled with the relatively stable and slightly strong situation in the RMB, the Shanghai Lun ratio continues to weaken to 8.02, the spot loss of imported copper has expanded to 1000 yuan/ton, and the imported mine has also suffered a loss of about 100 yuan. The import loss affects the customs declaration, Driven by the double impetus of the increase in the import losses at the mine end and the export of refineries, it is expected that the domestic trade market premium in the later period will gradually recover with the help of the slowdown in the actual supply pressure and psychological expectations for the peak season

risk point:

liquidity contraction risk

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